The “range of uncertainty” reflects a reasonable range of estimated potentially recoverable volumes for an individual accumulation. Any estimation of resource quantities for an accumulation is subject to both technical and commercial uncertainties, and should, in general, be quoted as a range. In the case of reserves, and where appropriate, this range of uncertainty can be reflected in estimates for Proved Reserves (1P), Proved plus Probable Reserves (2P) and Proved plus Probable plus Possible Reserves (3P) scenarios. For other resource categories, the terms Low Estimate, Best Estimate and High Estimate are recommended. The term “Best Estimate” is the estimate considered to be the closest to the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation between the date of the estimate and the time of abandonment. If probabilistic methods are used, this term would generally be a measure of central tendency of the uncertainty distribution (most likely/mode, median/P50 or mean). The terms “Low Estimate” and “High Estimate” should provide a reasonable assessment of the range of uncertainty in the Best Estimate. For undiscovered accumulations (Prospective Resources) the range will, in general, be substantially greater than the ranges for discovered accumulations. In all cases, however, the actual range will be dependent on the amount and quality of data (both technical and commercial) which is available for that accumulation. As more data become available for a specific accumulation (e.g. additional wells, reservoir performance data) the range of uncertainty for that accumulation should be reduced
05.07.2009

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