05.01.2010
During the first half of 2004, the Natural Gas Authority conducted a survey to identify present and future natural gas consumers. As part of the survey, 2000 potential customers and plants were sampled, within a radius of 30 km from the transmission system, according to National Outline Plan 37.
The MNI estimates that demand for gas in 2014 both from IEC and/or IPPs as well as from industrial users will be between 10.5 – 12.5 bcm.
Other experts believe that consumption will reach 7 bcm by 2015 and 10 bcm by 2020-2025.
In a conference in December 2009, MNI Minister Uzi Landau stated that that since the new discoveries offshore Israel had been made that the forecast of consumption for 2030 and been revised to 15 bcm per year rather than then originally quoted figure of 10 bcm.
In 2010, Clal Finance says they have spent considerable time trying to decipher the Israel gas market for supply and demand and after an examination of IEC’s books and an analysis of their development plans for the next few years they believe that IEC is expected to double their demand for natural gas and that by 2013 IEC’s generation capacity generated by natural gas will grow from 3,600 MW at the end of 2009 to about 7,600 MW at the beginning of 2013. Clal believes that even if the coal power station D gets established it will not be available before 2015 and thus it will not influence the consumption of natural gas at the beginning of the decade. Clal believes that the Tamar gas field alone will be supplying 8 bcm by 2015, up from the previously anticipated 6 bcm by this date and that total demand will be between 12-14 bcm in 2014.
According to the Rand Corporation Report in 2010 entitled” How Large a Role for Natural Gas?”
Given the uncertainties about future demand, relative fuel prices, possible policies such as carbon emissions charges, and technological changes, we compared how several energy strategies would perform under widely varying conditions. In all cases, we assessed the strategies against three criteria of concern: total cost through 2030, greenhouse emissions in 2030, and land area required for generating electricity. We set acceptable thresholds for each criterion and judged the strategies based on how well they performed across 1,400 future states of the world that we generated by varying the assumptions about future demand, prices, technologies, policies, and external developments. The 1,400 scenarios of the future represent the uncertainty facing Israeli policymakers.
We began with simple strategies, observed how they failed in certain scenarios, and modified them to be more robust. We found that making the strategies inherently adaptive — that is, subject to modification based on external triggers — led to more-successful outcomes.
Initially, this process yielded seven strategies. The first (or “baseline”) strategy represents a typical approach to planning: It seeks an optimal outcome based upon forecasts of future demand and is not adaptive. We then tried three adaptive strategies. One (Least Cost) always seeks the least-cost solution. Another (Less Natural Gas) seeks to minimize the effects of possible cutoffs of natural-gas supply. The third (More Natural Gas) is more concerned with utilizing the domestic resource. Each of these three exists in two forms: one that allows for the construction of renewable, non–fossil-fuel generating capacity and for enhanced conservation, and another that does not.
We found strong evidence that managing electricity demand and using several energy sources, particularly non–fossil-fuel alternatives, raised the success rates. When demand is left unchecked and follows the high-growth assumptions of the baseline forecasts, it becomes quite difficult to choose any strategy that will meet the nation’s goals for cost, emissions, and land use.
Figure 4 compares the results of the baseline strategy with those of the three modified adaptive ones. We label the latter strategies LCC (Least Cost + Conservation), LessNGRC (Less Natural Gas + Renewables + Conservation), and MoreNGRC (More Natural Gas + Renewables + Conservation). The figure shows that MoreNGRC — a strategy that does not shy from expanded use of natural gas in Israel — could be both consistent with Israel’s interests and relatively robust across many plausible futures. MoreNGRC succeeds in meeting the cost threshold almost as well as LCC while at least matching the other strategies in emissions and land use. Israeli analysts will have access to the full database of scenario outcomes and will be able to explore this finding in greater detail.
In October 2010, Nira Shamir the head economist of Discount estimates that the total needs of the Israeli gas market for natural gas for the next 20 years will be 230 bcm compared to a potential of discoveries of about 700 bcm.
Dec 2010 – MNI press statement regarding growth of natural gas consumption in Israel – growth of 23% in natural gas consumption in the Israeli market in 2010 to 5.2 bcm during the year and the estimation is that growth will double in the next decade. Over 60% of this was supplied by Yam Tethys and the remainder by EMG. About 90% of this gas was consumed by IEC and the remainder by the Oil Refinery in Ashdod, the IPP by the water desalination plant in Ashkelon, by the Dead Sea Works, by the Hadera Paper Mills and by the Nesher Cement enterprise. In 2006, consumption is expected to reach 6 bcm with most of the growth coming due to the link up of new consumers in the north such as the Haifa p.s., the Alon Tavor p.s. and the Haifa Oil Refinery.
January 2011 – MNI Press statement – increase of 19% in the use of natural gas for the generation of electricity in 2010. MNI data shows that in 2010 56.5 TWH were produced, an increase of about 6% compared to 2009 which saw 53.3 TWh of electricity generation and all of the increase came from natural gas generated electricity, so that 20.4 TWhrs were produced by natural gas in 2010. Coal generation in 2010 was identical to 2009 and thus its share in the fuel mix decreased by 3.6%
Demand for natural gas in Israel:
• IEC
o Stations that are currently operating on natural gas: Eshkol (Ashdod); Reading, Gezer (Ramle), Hagit (Yokneam)
o Stations in the process of being built and/or connected to gas – Kfar Menachem, Ramat Hovav, Alon Tavor, Haifa
o The GoI approved the plans to construct D p.s. in Ashkelon to be a dual fuel (gas and coal station)
o About 10 additional power station are expected to be set up on natural gas for a total capacity of 5,000 MW
o The MNI minister ordered IEC to convert the Orot Rabin A (4 units of1,400 MW) from coal to natural gas as of 2015
• IPPs
o The GoI determined that 20% of electricity will come from natural gas operated IPPs: Dorad, Delek desalination plant in Ashkelon, Delek Ramat Gavriel, Delek Alon Tavor, Nesher, Ashdod Oil Refinery, Haifa Oil Refinery, Ramat Hovav IPP, Dalia Energy, Dor Alon Kiryat Gat and others.
• Heavy Industrial users
o Natural gas as raw material (Ashdod oil refinery, Hadera Paper Mills, Israel Chemicals, Agan Plant in Ashdod, Mahteshim, etc.)
• Natural Gas Distribution network
o Natural gas is planned to reach most of the industrial areas in the country via 5 distribution networks
2011 – Yam Tethys higher consumption by 31% and EMG lower by 67% (EMG delivered gas for 137 days in 2011) over 2010
IEC consumed 4.07 BCM of gas in 2011, 82% of Israel’s total gas consumption.
Two more IEC power stations were hooked up to the national gas pipeline network during the year: Haifa, and Alon Tavor in the Galilee.
Six private sector consumers also hooked up to the pipeline network last year: Israel Chemicals (ICL) units Rotem Amfert Negev and Periclase in the Negev; Haifa Chemicals Ltd’s plant at Mishor Rotem in the Negev; Oil Refineries (ORL) in Haifa; Makhteshim Agan Industries Ltd. plants in Ashdod and at Ramat Hovav in the Negev. By the end of 2011, 11 private sector consumers were hooked up to the gas pipeline network, and they consumed 900 million cubic meters of gas, 54% more than in 2010.